That uncertainty you’ve been feeling – it’s not just you! Last month, the CEO confidence index experienced its sharpest quarterly decline since its inception in 1976. Companies are used to planning for a future that is at least somewhat similar to the present, but today more than ever, that is not necessarily the case.

So what to do in this situation? Scenario planning may be the perfect approach.

Scenario planning is a strategic method for exploring multiple plausible futures, based on a combination of current trends, driving forces, and critical uncertainties. Unlike forecasting, scenario planning isn’t about trying to guess what will happen. Instead, it’s a way of exploring what could happen – so you’re better prepared, no matter what the future brings.

At its heart, scenario planning is a process that helps teams stretch their thinking beyond the default assumptions. The process usually starts with a simple but essential question: What are the biggest uncertainties that could affect our business in the next 2–5 years?Typically, we conduct interviews with stakeholders and opinion leaders to generate a list of those uncertainties.

We then engage stakeholders in a workshop to further explore the most critical uncertainties and devise scenarios for them. In the workshop, we delve deep into the signs to watch for such as shifts in buyer behavior, economic trends, and more. Armed with this information, we work together to devise strategies for preparing your organization for them.

Could scenario planning be helpful for your organization? I’ve partnered with fractional CMO and strategist extraordinaire Beth VanStory in order to offer clients the whole scenario planning process, including research, workshop, analysis and strategy development. See more about Beth here and contact me at info at bureauwest.com to discuss further.

Source: “CEO Confidence Plummets as Tariffs Take a Toll,” Wall Street Journal, 5/29/25